Fantasy Golf Stock Market: Pebble Beach

by: C.A. Schmidt Staff Writer








In lieu of the 'What We Learned' column, we're transitioning to a quick post mortem-style write-up on the fantasy implications from the event of the week. Here's the report based on the results from the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am:

Buy

Brandt Snedeker. Hard for him to get any higher after two second-place finishes and a win, but he's clearly playing as well if not better than anyone in the world. A $500,000 payday is a disappointment for him these days, but his game travels and he appears to be the favorite in any event he enters.

Jason Day. He has two top 10's in three starts in 2013. Every aspect of his game has improved compared to historical data with the exception of driving accuracy, at which he's always been terrible.

Bryce Molder. Starting similar to his 2012 season, during which he was a 50/50 bet to cash well in any event leading up to The Masters. He's sure to play a lot as the Tour moves toward Texas. Third in putting and 16th in birdie average on Tour.

Chris Kirk. He had four top-10's in 2012, but already has two top-5's in 2013. Held it together well down the stretch at Pebble, and is among the leaders on Tour in scoring before the cut, in the third and the fourth rounds. In the top five in putting and birdie percentage, too.

Hold

Retief Goosen. He had five events to make $76K on his limited extension, and he made $175K in his first start at Pebble. He said he's going to play a full schedule in 2013, and that he feels 20 years younger after back surgery.

Hunter Mahan. He's gone T15, T16, T16 the last three weeks. The long slumber appears to be over. 

Jim Furyk. I almost put him in the 'Buy' category. An opening-round 75 did him in at the AT&T, but he closed in -6 his last three rounds. It was his first event of the year and he's going to be good for double-digit top-10's the rest of the way. He's won or has had multiple top-5 finishes in all the states coming up on the schedule: Arizona, Florida and Texas.

Sell

Dustin Johnson. A bad stretch of three events since his win at Kapalua: T51, WD, MC. For perspective, he had one WD and one MC in all of 2012, and he was injured for 20% of the year. DJ will inevitable improve as the year goes on, but he's radioactive from a fantasy perspective right now.

Phil Mickelson. As I mentioned on Twitter, since 2004 he's won every year before The Masters except 2010... and he won The Masters that year. He's always a tease, but the bottom line is it's hard to count on him for a big paycheck in fantasy golf.

Nick Watney. In his last 36 holes at Spyglass and Pebble, he made two birdies and nine bogeys. This is coming off a T43 finish in Scottsdale, where he should've been among the favorites. He's 122nd on Tour in putting, and this is before coming to some of the more difficult greens on Tour.

Futures

James Hahn. He's played five consecutive events and will surely use his T3 finish at Pebble to get into Riviera this week. He could hit a wall soon, but after the reshuffle I expect him to be a factor over the summer. His swing and mentality are too good.

Patrick Cantlay. Finished T9 at Pebble and is -16 through nine rounds so far in 2013. He's a guy to watch this week at Riviera, as it's basically a home game for the celebrated amateur.

Billy Horschel. He hasn't missed a cut since last May. While he hasn't been cashing huge checks, it's only a matter of time before his consistency pays off. I'm targeting Transitions for a top-5 finish for him.




Photo: USA Today Sports Images